Chance of development continues to increase for tropical disturbance in Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

Disturbance near Florida likely to form

FOX 13 News Meteorologist Jim Weber says there is a 70% chance that a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico will form over the next week. The disturbance could pose a threat to Florida, according to Weber.

TAMPA, Fla. - According to the National Hurricane Center, the highest chance of tropical development over the next week is in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical depression is likely to form as an area of low pressure moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.

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The Central American Gyre is a weather pattern known to contribute to tropical storm development during early spring and autumn. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of the disturbance during the next several days.

"But it looks like right now the most likely scenario would be something across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. So that obviously poses an issue for us here on the west coast of Florida," explained FOX 13 News Meteorologist Jim Weber.

It has a 70% chance of developing over the next seven days.

A look at an area to watch in the Caribbean. (FOX Weather)

Invest 96L is also being monitored. The NHC says while the low remains embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized. The disturbance has a 20% chance of forming over the next week.

"So it doesn't really look like much is going to happen with this as we go through the coming days. And if it does, it doesn't really matter because you see the track with all the computer models, it's out over open water," explained Weber.

A look at the tropical activity brewing the Atlantic Basin. (FOX Weather)

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A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move westward during the next several days.

Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, according to the NHC.

The wave has a 40% chance of formation over the next seven days.

FOXWeather.com contributed to this story.

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