Invest 97L disturbance in Caribbean likely to become tropical depression within next few days

By Scott Sistek
Published  November 2, 2024 11:22am EDT
FOX Weather
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Disturbance in Caribbean will likely develop

The chances for an area in the Caribbean to develop continue to increase, according to FOX 13 News Meteorologist Valerie Mills. A strong ridge of high pressure over the southeast is expected to block the storm from moving north but it could move into the Gulf of Mexico. If the system emerges into the Gulf it will encounter a lot of conditions that work against further development, including dryer air, cooler waters and some wind shear.

TAMPA, Fla. - A budding weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is looking more and more likely like it is going to soon develop into at least a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The outlook for an area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. (FOX Weather)

The system, now designated Invest 97L by the NHC, was still just a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late Saturday morning. 

But gradual development is expected over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves over the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC.  Three Hurricane Hunter flights are scheduled into 97L over Sunday and Monday.

With a subtropical system in the northern Atlantic earning the name Patty early Saturday morning, should this Caribbean disturbance reach tropical storm strength, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list is Rafael.

"There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday," says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. "A dense plume of tropical moisture is forecast to rotate north with the potential storm. This will enhance the flooding threat on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico beginning Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek."

READ: Beware of unlicensed contractors trying to con Bay Area residents repairing homes after recent hurricanes

But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, the forecast gets fuzzy with weaker steering currents that add uncertainty to the forecast.
 
"If the system stays relatively weak, it looks more likely to drift to the west, perhaps toward the Mexican coast," Norcross said. "If it's on the stronger side, however, it could continue north toward some part of the U.S. Gulf Coast."

But the storm may still find hostile atmospheric conditions if it attempts to approach the U.S., with a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable upper-level wind pattern.

"So, even if possible-Rafael is able to strengthen in the southern Gulf, a significant storm at the coast looks unlikely, based on what we know now," Norcross said, adding if the system ever did reach the coast, on the current schedule, that would happen around next weekend.

"Obviously, we're going to have another week of watching the tropics, though the odds of a significant storm impacting the U.S. appear to be low," he said. "Forecasts for a week from now are always fuzzy, of course, so stay tuned."

Another disturbance in Northeastern Caribbean Sea may combine with 97L

The NHC is also monitoring an area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but this system has a low chance of developing over the next week.

An area to watch in the Caribbean Sea is moving north-northwest in the coming days. (FOX Weather)

"Some heavy tropical downpours will affect the northeastern Caribbean islands for the next couple of days as the system tracks to the west," Norcross said. "Next week, it will likely be absorbed by the developing disturbance in the Caribbean."

The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a slight chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Even if that should happen, however, it wouldn't change the forecast weather, Norcross said.

North Atlantic: Welcome Subtropical Storm Patty

In the North Atlantic, a potent storm developed into Subtropical Storm Patty, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning.

Subtropical Storm Patty. (FOX Weather)

Patty had sustained winds of 65 mph and was located just about 300 miles west/northwest of the Azores, the NHC said.

The storm, previously designated Invest 96L, is expected to maintain its current strength Saturday and then gradually weaken Sunday, perhaps becoming a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday, according to the NHC.

The storm's remnants could eventually reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.

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