Epidemiologist says Florida could be in the clear from COVID-19 by June
Doctor explains how to get Florida to be COVID-free
He says vaccines play a big role in getting past the pandemic in the Sunshine State.
TAMPA, Fla. - The community could be in the clear of COVID-19 by June, one of Tampa Bay's leading epidemiologists said Wednesday, adding a change in approach could make the outlook even better.
During a news conference, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the state has vaccinated roughly 1.7 million seniors, which is about 35% of Florida's senior population.
"That is way, way more than any other state by hundreds and hundreds of thousands," DeSantis said. "Of all the people that have been vaccinated in Florida close to 75% of all shots have gone to senior citizens."
Governor says vaccine distribution increasing
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says the number of vaccines coming into the state and going into people's arms continues to rise.
Dr. Edwin Michael, a USF Health epidemiologist, commended state and federal leaders for taking a "seniors first" approach to the vaccination effort. But Michael believes there could be a more successful way to limit the spread of the virus.
"If you ask me as an epidemiologist, I would say target the 20-to-49 [year-olds]," he said, adding this is the age group that tends to spread the virus the most. "You stop transmission as soon as possible, that will reduce hospitalizations as an indirect outcome and that will protect the older folks."
Last December, Dr. Michael, who studies the spread and control of global infectious diseases and runs weekly models of the Tampa Bay area, had said the community could be out of the pandemic by mid-April. He told FOX 13 his data has changed due to a relaxation in people's safety measures and an uptick in infections connected to the 2020 holiday season.
CDC collecting data on Super Bowl COVID cases
Super Bowl LV brought tens of thousands of people from all over the country to Tampa. However, the packed streets and dense crowds have health officials concerned about the spread of COVID-19.
But in the last few weeks, infections, hospitalizations and deaths have been decreasing. Dr. Michael doesn't believe the more-infectious U.K. COVID-19 strain, which is already spreading in Florida, will cause another spike.
LINK: COVID-19 vaccine distribution information in Tampa Bay area counties
"If the variance were transmitting or spreading rapidly as it spread in the UK, you would expect transmission rates to increase. But we are not seeing anything for the last month. It’s been steadily falling," he said, also pointing out the vaccines currently in use appear to be effective on the U.K. variant.
Some of his colleagues, however, have not been as optimistic.
"This variant from the United Kingdom has pretty-well established itself and it's looking like it's about six percent of the total cases now in Florida and it's doubling every 10 days or so," Dr. Thomas Unnasch told FOX 13 earlier this week. "In 40 days, it's going to be 100 percent of the infections that we're seeing at that point... That could lead to a really substantial uptick in infections. So anything that we can do ahead of that to slow the growth of that is something that would be really useful."
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Spike in COVID-19 cases expected after Super Bowl celebrations, experts say
Super Bowl LV brought tens of thousands of people from all over the country to Tampa. However, the packed streets and dense crowds have health officials concerned about the spread of COVID-19.
Dr. Michael agreed that the community needs to re-focus its efforts on adhering to COVID-19 safety measures.
"We have to give time for the vaccines to roll out. And so any drop in the social measures is going to complicate it."