Florida's citrus production could be historically low. Here's why

Florida citrus forecast drops again

FOX 13's Kellie Cowan breaks down why the latest citrus forecast from the USDA is bringing more bad news for Florida's farmers.

TAMPA, Fla. - Florida's citrus output has been falling for decades, but this season's harvest could be the smallest in more than a century.

Citrus forecast by the numbers

Oranges

According to the latest forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Florida farmers will produce enough oranges to fill 12 million 90-pound boxes – a drop of 3 million boxes compared to projections before Hurricane Milton.

If that number holds, it would also represent a decline of one-third compared to the last growing season, in which 18 million boxes were produced.

The state's citrus industry peaked in the 1997-98 season, producing 244 million boxes of oranges. This year's projected crop is about 6% of that number.

The USDA projects historically low citrus production in Florida during the 2024-25 growing season.

Other citrus crops

The USDA says Florida will produce 1.2 million boxes of grapefruit this season, down 200,000 from the initial forecast and a decline of one-third compared to 1.79 million boxes last season.

Specialty crops – which include tangerines and mandarins – are suffering, too, with 350,000 boxes projected versus 450,000 a year ago.

For a closer look at the citrus forecast, click here.

What is impacting citrus production?

Hurricanes

The 2024 hurricane season had a serious impact on Florida, with Florida Citrus Mutual CEO Matt Joyner saying in October that Hurricane Milton affected "probably 70% of the most productive citrus acreage in Florida."

Hurricanes have also hit Florida's citrus farmers hard in years past, including the 2004 season, along with Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Ian in 2022.

PREVIOUS: Hurricane Milton impacts already-struggling Florida citrus industry

Citrus greening

The USDA says citrus greening is a bacterial infection of citrus plants and has had a "significant" impact on production in Florida, along with several other states and U.S. territories.

Efforts to combat citrus greening have advanced in recent years, with treatments and techniques such as "regenerative growing" giving some farmers hope.

Development

Florida's rapid population growth has led to reductions in citrus crops for decades, with residential and commercial developments popping up in areas where citrus groves once stood.

Statistics from the USDA show Florida's citrus acreage topped 832,000 in 2000. By 2024, that number dropped to less than 275,000 acres. That includes a net loss of 17%, or more than 57,000 acres, in just the past year.

For a closer look at changes to Florida's citrus acreage over the past 25 years, click here.

Will the price of oranges and orange juice keep going up?

In October, Joyner told FOX Business that there's "no doubt" orange juice prices could skyrocket because of the continued drop in production.

The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows prices of both orange juice concentrate and oranges already near record highs, with a 12-ounce can of frozen orange juice concentrate costing $4.25 on average as of October. In September 2020, the average price was just $2.26.

For a historical look at orange juice prices nationwide, click here.

What are state leaders saying?

Florida Senate President Ben Albritton, a citrus grower from Hardee County, says he plans to push for greater support from the Legislature in the upcoming session.

"Pretty much everybody that I spend time with back home grows something for a living, mostly citrus and cattle," Albritton said. "So, I believe in the industry. Part of it's in my DNA. Quite frankly, citrus is in the DNA of Florida."

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