New tropical system could form in Caribbean as development chances for disturbance continue to grow

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The development chances for a disturbance in the Caribbean continue to grow, and forecasters say a tropical depression or tropical storm could develop by the end of this week or over the weekend.

This new area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) comes after what was left of Tropical Storm Rafael fizzled in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday. While the remnants of the former major hurricane are no longer being monitored, forecasters said life-threatening rip currents are possible along areas of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

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This graphic shows the development chances for a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea. (FOX Weather)

The NHC said that an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave in the region.

The system, the NHC said, is expected to move slowly to the west over the next few days, and environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development.

The NHC said a tropical depression or storm could form late this week or over the weekend while it meanders over the western Caribbean.

As of Monday afternoon, the NHC is giving the system a low chance of developing over the next two days and a medium chance of developing over the next seven days. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will receive the name Sara.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.

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