Trump holds 6-point lead over Biden in Florida: FOX 13 Tampa Bay/InsiderAdvantage Poll

Trump leads in Florida, but polls are close

A FOX 13 poll shows the 2024 presidential race in Florida is closer than many might think, with Donald Trump holding a six-point lead over President Joe Biden. Political editor Craig Patrick breaks down the numbers.

TAMPA, Fla. - In a survey of 800 Florida voters conducted July 15-16, Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points with a 3.94% margin of error.

Results of the FOX 13/InsiderAdvantage Florida Poll are as follows:

Trump: 50%
Biden: 44%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 3%
800 Sample; Likely Registered Voters; Weighted for age, race, gender, and party affiliation
Cell phone/text data collection

InsiderAdvantage founder Matt Towery said the results are consistent with the latest, if sparse, public polling of Florida.

"A six-point lead at 50% is a comfortable lead for Donald Trump. What we will have to keep our eye on will be the ‘enthusiasm’ numbers," Towery said. "At present 80% of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in November, but only 55% of Democrats say they are enthusiastic. Keeping in mind that abortion rights and expanded legal use of marijuana are on the ballot in November, that gap could close and make the presidential contest closer. If neither of those issues nor the Democratic nominee fail to generate more enthusiasm, the final numbers could be even larger for Trump."

The Florida survey shows a sharp gender gap, with Trump winning among men 57-38%. Biden leads among women 48-44%. Trump leads among Hispanic voters 63-35%.

"Trump’s lead is largely built on his large lead among Hispanic-Latino voters and his current support from almost fifteen percent of African American Voters. Trump is winning among independents and enjoys a lead albeit not a large one among white voters," Towery noted.

The FOX 13 survey also tested a theoretical matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris:

Trump: 49%
Harris: 39%
Other: 7%
Undecided: 5%

"A Harris candidacy in replacement of Biden appears to be a ‘no go,’ not just in Florida but in the other battleground states we surveyed," said Towery. "A Democratic ticket with Harris at the top loses ground with virtually every demographic group in the survey."

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