How long does omicron immunity last?
TAMPA, Fla. - With cases of omicron in Florida dropping like a stone, the question now becomes- will they ever bounce back?
The neat waves shown on CDC's chart of Florida's seven-day rolling average of new cases show that COVID-19 leaves some immunity behind, but that it doesn't last forever.
While we are still waiting to see if COVID-19 infections leave us safe from severe illness, it's relatively clear that omicron infections may leave us with enough antibodies to avoid infection altogether, for up to six months.
"The pit bull stays alive for a while. Many years we hope," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong of the University of California San Francisco. "The guards at the front gate, they are super tired. They kind of whither over three to six months."
Just five weeks ago, Florida's rolling average hit 65,000. Today, it's at just over 6,000.
"You have a big immunity force field in that community," explained Dr. Chin-Hong.
Florida saw similar drops after delta last summer and after two previous waves since March 2020. But there are words of caution, Dr. Chin-Hong says. Some omicron patients have indeed been re-infected. Also, it may be key that omicron generally stays in the nasal passages as opposed to the lungs, the way delta did.
"Many people think you may not get as much of a vigorous immune response," said Chin-Hong.
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Source: CDC
Dr. Jay Wolfson, USF's dean of health policy, says the key is to keep research and awareness upfront, regardless of where we are in a wave.
"My hope is that the state of Florida and federal government and other states are going to continue to support public health surveillance and monitoring efforts, but they are not sexy," said Wolfson.
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Dr. Chin-Hong says it’s ideal to be protected with three shots of a vaccine and, if it comes to that, "hybrid-immunity" from a natural and hopefully mild infection.
"It's just the amount of times that your immune system is reminded," said Chin-Hong. "If your immune system is reminded four times, that is going to be a lot better for the long term than an immune system just being reminded once or twice."