Hurricane Helene timeline: Here’s what to expect

Hurricane Helene moves into Gulf as it heads toward Florida

FOX 13 meteorologists Jim Weber and Nash Rhodes are tracking Hurricane Helene.

TAMPA, Fla. - Hurricane Helene formed late Wednesday morning, and is expected to rapidly intensify before making landfall in the Big Bend area on Thursday.

While it looks like the Bay Area will be spared a direct hit, we will be impacted by heavy rain, wind and storm surge.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Anclote River to Mexico Beach and a hurricane watch is in effect for Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

How strong will Helene get?

As of 2 p.m. on Tuesday, Hurricane Helene had sustained winds of 80 miles an hour and was moving north-northwest at 10 miles an hour.

READ: Hurricane Helene: County-by-county guide

By 8 p.m. on Wednesday, Helene is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 miles an hour.

The storm will likely strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by 8 a.m. on Thursday with winds of 120 miles per hour as it passes by the west coast of Florida.

When will Helene make landfall?

Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall in the Big Bend area around 8 p.m. on Thursday as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 miles an hour. That is just five miles shy of a Category 4 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center noted that Helene’s winds may be stronger by the time it makes landfall.

READ: Hurricane Helene prompts evacuations in Bay Area

By Friday at 8 a.m. Helene’s winds should drop to about 60 miles an hour as it passes over Georgia. As it moves over inland Georgia, Helene will quickly weaken, and its winds will be about 25 miles an hour by 8 a.m. on Saturday.

When will Hurricane Helene impact the Bay Area?

The tropical-storm-force winds will stretch 250 miles northeast and southeast from the storm. Hurricane-force winds stretch 40 miles out from the storm on the northeast side and the southeast side.

FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber says the Bay Area could begin to feel the tropical storm-force winds from Hurricane Helene beginning early Thursday morning.

READ: Hurricane Helene: Here's what's closed in the Bay Area

He adds that the entire Bay Area will feel Helene’s winds by midday on Thursday. He notes that the hurricane-force winds will stay offshore.

The Bay Area could see 40 – 50 mile-an-hour wind gusts on Thursday morning. Weber says by Thursday afternoon some of those wind gusts could be near hurricane strength, especially along the coastline. Inland, wind gusts could be 50-60 miles an hour.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Flamingo northward to South Santee River
Lake Okeechobee
Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

As Helene passes by the Bay Area on Thursday afternoon, its winds will turn toward the south and southwest. That’s what will pile the water along the coastline and create a storm surge.

Pinellas County and into Tampa Bay could see 5 – 8 feet of storm surge and 4–7 feet in Sarasota and Manatee Counties.

Pasco and Hernando Counties could see 6–10 feet of storm surge, while Citrus County could see 10 – 15 feet of storm surge pushing along the coastline, causing flooding.