Hurricane Milton tracker: Category 4 storm barrels toward Florida, landfall as 'dangerous' storm expected

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Hurricane Milton headed for Florida

FOX 13 News Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says strong winds will be in the Bay Area by early afternoon on Wednesday. Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Hurricane Milton slightly weakened to a strong Category 4 storm on Wednesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour.

FOX 13 meteorologists say Milton is beginning to encounter a less favorable environment with strong wind shear, which will lessen the intensity of the storm before it makes landfall. However, it could still be a Category 4 storm at landfall.

As of 8 a.m. on Wednesday, Milton was located at 25.0N and 84.8W, which is about 250 miles southwest of Tampa.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton wobbled earlier on Tuesday, but it is moving northeast at 16 miles an hour. The storm is expected to increase in speed and turn northeast through Wednesday night.

Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The NHC says fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but it is expected to still be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida.

The NHC says a turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

Then, the storm is expected to move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday afternoon.

READ: St. Pete construction cranes could pose a threat during Hurricane Milton

Hurricane-force winds stretch 30 miles out from the center of Hurricane Milton and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 51 Florida counties, while President Joe Biden has approved a federal disaster declaration ahead of Milton.

Watches and Warnings

A storm surge warning is in effect for Florida’s west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, as well as the Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Florida’s west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and on Florida’s east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.

A tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. Wednesday for a portion of the Bay Area, including Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pinellas, Polk and Sarasota counties. The tornado watch extends through all of South Florida.

Storm Surge

The National Hurricane Center says the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

  • Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL - 10-15 ft
  • Tampa Bay - 10-15 ft
  • Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL - 9-13 ft
  • Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL - 8-12 ft
  • Charlotte Harbor - 8-12 ft
  • Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL - 5-8 ft
  • Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL - 5-8 ft
  • Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL - 3-5 ft
  • Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA - 3-5 ft
  • Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC - 2-4 ft
  • Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL - 2-4 ft
  • Dry Tortugas - 2-4 ft
  • St. Johns River - 2-4 ft

FOX 13 meteorologists say where Hurricane Milton makes landfall will make a huge difference in the amount of storm surge, with areas ranging from the eye to about 20–30 miles south getting the worst of it.

What is the difference between a watch and a warning?

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane Milton: Mandatory evacuations begin in Tampa Bay Area

A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida's Gulf coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

How much rain will we get? 

Florida can expect to see 6 – 12 inches of rain with some places getting up to 18 inches. The heaviest rain is expected north of the storm's center.

Hurricane Milton will bring heavy rain to Florida, especially north of the storm's center, leading to a risk of heavy flooding in some areas.

This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.

Hurricane Milton will bring heavy rain to parts of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, Wednesday into Thursday.

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