Hurricane Milton: Understanding storm surge projections for Tampa Bay area

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Updated  October 8, 2024 6:23pm EDT
FOX 13 News
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Understanding storm surge projections for Tampa Bay area

FOX 13's Evan Axelbank reports.

TAMPA, Fla. - Officials in the City of Tampa are bracing for record amounts of storm surge from Hurricane Milton.

"That is something that you really only see in the movies," Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said during a press conference held Tuesday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center's storm surge predictor said a Category 3 storm is projected to cover most of downtown and South Tampa with water nine feet above ground.

Hurricane Milton: Hillsborough County updates & information

"The worst-case scenario that we have seen was Hurricane Ike," said FOX 13 Meteorologist Valerie Mills, "where the surge actually made it 25 miles inland for parts of Louisiana, parts of Texas."

Mills points out that Ike caused 20 feet of storm surge, but she said topography is the only thing that can slow down 15 feet of surge. She said the surge will spread out as it moves inland, but a chart from the NHC shows what 5-7 feet of storm surge looks like. 

Only Zone A takes it on the chin. But when the projection is 12 to 15 feet, only zones D and E are spared. That's why Castor is begging people in zones A and B to move to higher ground.

"Say you're in a single-story home," said Castor. "Twelve feet is above that house. So, basically, that's the coffin you're in."

READ: When will the bridges close for Hurricane Milton?

Mills said one mitigating factor could be the angle at which the storm hits, and thus, how the wind pushes the water.

"[If we get] that landfall, say, just to the south of Tampa Bay, [the] winds for our area, those would actually be moving offshore," Mills said.

But if you jog the storm to the north, the nightmare scenario, the mayor's "only in the movies" scenario, becomes real life.

"If this were to come onshore, [in] say, parts of Pasco County, we would be talking about persistent onshore flow moving right into Tampa Bay," said Mills.

Granted, Hurricane Ike, that Mills described, was 20 feet of storm surge that went in 25 miles. A hurricane that hit Tampa in 1848 did bring 15 feet of storm surge and all of downtown had water.

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