Rafael strengthens to Category 2 hurricane, Florida Keys under tropical storm warning

TAMPA, Fla. - Hurricane Rafael has strengthened into a Category 2 storm as it heads toward Cuba, where landfall is expected Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 7 a.m. Wednesday, Rafael was located at 21.0N and 81.6W with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles an hour, moving northwest at 14 miles an hour.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael will pass through western Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm.

The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Rafael will make landfall in Cuba on Wednesday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC says the storm will also bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, through early Thursday.

Where will Rafael go once it reaches the Gulf?

Models have shifted west, indicating that Rafael will turn far away from Florida's Gulf coast in the coming days.

A tropical storm warning is in effect, however, for the Florida Keys, where some storm impacts are expected Wednesday and early Thursday.

Models are divided on whether Rafael will head north toward the U.S. Gulf coast, or turn south toward Mexico.

As the storm moves through the Gulf, it's expected to weaken because of cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear.

FOX 13 Meteorologist Jim Weber says it remains to be seen whether Rafael will make landfall in the U.S., or turn south toward Mexico.

"We may see some big adjustments to the forecast track as we go through the day," Weber said.

Weber says the Tampa Bay area will see cloudy skies and scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, with most of Florida's storm impacts staying to the south.

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