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Craig Patrick explains FOX 13 midterm election polling data
FOX 13 News Tampa Bay and FOX 35 Orlando, with pollster Insider Advantage, conducted the final poll of Florida voters to see how the top state races may turn out. Republicans have the obvious lead, but will it translate to actual votes on election day? FOX 13 Political Editor Craig Patrick breaks it all down.
TAMPA, Fla. - FOX 13’s final poll before the 2022 midterm election shows Republican incumbents, Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio, enjoy significant leads over their Democratic opponents.
DeSantis holds a 10-point lead over Charlie Crist and Rubio leads Val Demings by 6%.
The poll was conducted in cooperation with FOX 35 Orlando by Florida pollster Insider Advantage, who surveyed likely voters. The poll was conducted on Tuesday, November 1.
Pictured left to right: Marco Rubio (R), Val Demings (D), Ron DeSantis (R), Charlie Crist (D)
Participants were asked, "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"
Governor - DeSantis vs Crist
- 53% said Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis
- 43% said Democrat Charlie Crist
- 1% said another candidate
- 3% said undecided/no opinion
U.S. Senate - Rubio vs Demings
- 51% said Republican incumbent Marco Rubio
- 45% said Democrat Val Demings
- 1% said another candidate
- 3% said undecided/no opinion
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Related: Closer look at the US Senate race
As Florida's senate race enters its final stretch, Republican Senator Marco Rubio and Democrat Val Demings are making one last push for Tampa Bay area voters, including a stop by Demings in Ybor City Tuesday.
RELATED: Florida senate candidates make final push for Bay Area votes
Respondents were also asked, "What is your opinion of the job performance of President Joe Biden?"
President Biden approval in Florida
- 42% approve
- 57% disapprove
- 1% were undecided/no opinion
Survey respondent demographics:
Age
- 17% were aged 18-39
- 41.5% were aged 40-64
- 41.5% were aged 65+
Gender
- 274 were female
- 276 were male
Race
- 60% were white
- 13% were Black
- 27% were "another race"
Party affiliation
- 37% were registered Republicans
- 32% were registered Democrats
- 31% were registered Independents
The survey's margin of error was 4.2%.
Insider Advantage Pollster Matt Towery said it's "obvious: that the president's weak approval rating in Florida has impacted other Democratic nominees.
"But elections are about turnout, and it is possible that Biden’s appearance in South Florida this week could boost Democrat participation and make the race a bit closer," said Towery. "But Crist is losing in every age group by close to 10 points. I rarely see in a statewide general election poll in Florida where all age groups are decidedly behind one candidate."
Towery said, in other states where he's conducted polling, he sees a pronounced gender gap.
In many states, he said women voters tend to prefer Democrats (often by 15 points) – but not in Florida.
"Demings is performing better but still loses among every age group, as well. The typical, large gender gap that we see regarding female voters has melted to a four-point advantage for each Democrat (in Florida)," said Towery. "Men are supporting the Republican nominees at around a 13-point advantage. Both Republicans are carrying the Hispanic/Latino/other race vote by nearly 60%, which is close to the near-70% level at which these voters disapprove Biden’s job performance in this survey. Republican nominees appear to be receiving between 15-20% of the African American vote in many battleground states like Florida. but 28% of African Americans (in Florida) disapprove of Biden’s job performance in this poll."