Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 forecast to become Tropical Storm Rafael, expected to stay west of Florida

Tampa weather | Cooler temperatures and a breeze in the region

FOX 13 meteorologist Valerie Mills forecasts cooler temperatures and a breeze with rain later in the week in the Tampa Bay region.

TAMPA, Fla. - The tropics are showing no signs of cooling down after the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.

PREVIOUS: Tropical system could bring rain to Florida

FOX 13 News Meteorologist Jim Weber says Invest 97L has a high chance of developing. Weber doesn’t expect a big hurricane to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. He says it will likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it moves into the Gulf and brings a lot of rain to Florida. According to Weber, the tropical system could track closer to the state or more toward the center of the Gulf.

The storm is expected to stay a good distance west of Florida and will be weakening as it heads north over cool water.

A potential tropical cyclone (PTC) designation allows the NHC and other governments to issue Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings when a disturbance isn't quite at tropical storm strength but is expected to get there soon, with storm impacts occurring within 36 hours.

In this case, forecasters believe the tropical disturbance could eventually develop into Tropical Storm Rafael in the coming days.

What's the latest with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, which was previously designated as Invest 97L, is moving northward in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Due to Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, a Hurricane Watch is in place for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Jamaica.

The NHC said the system would move northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Governments and weather officials in those regions are likely to issue more alerts later on Sunday or early Monday.

What's the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone 18?

According to FOX 13's Chief Meteorologist Paul Dellegatto, PTC 18 will have plenty of warm water and low shear in the Caribbean that will allow it to intensify.

"It would not be a surprise to see a hurricane in the Caribbean before cooler Gulf waters, shear, and dry air induce a weakening trend. This is not going to be another Helene or Milton for us. However, there will likely be some impacts beginning Wednesday, including the first significant rainfall since Milton," said Dellegatto.

He says the Bay Area may see gusty winds and marine impacts depending on how close the track gets to our west coast and how strong the storm is when it passes by.

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