Mote scientists hope red tide research leads to improved predictions
SARASOTA, Fla. - Dr. Cynthia Heil at Mote Marine Laboratory is working on predicting a red tide bloom from start to finish.
"We are very good at predicting the movement of blooms based on the physics of the system," she said.
How red tide ends, though, is a question that remains unanswered.
"The longer-term predictions, like when a bloom will end, we are not there yet, but this is the sort of knowledge that we need to get there," Heil continued.
That insight could come from a five-year study she's working on, funded by NOAA's ECOHAB.
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Dr. Heil is looking into the dynamics of red tide blooms, how they expand and how they end.
Lab work and records dating back to 1952 have given her insight.
"We see two patterns in blooms ending," she explained. "One is they just decrease in place, and the other is they are slowly transported south and then west into the Central Gulf."
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Once a system is able to predict how or when a bloom will end, Dr. Heil believes it'll help out in a number of ways.
"These blooms have such huge environmental and economic impacts and having that sort of knowledge goes a long way toward mitigating both of these. Whether it’s marine mortalities, the state can better prepare, and if it’s economic impacts, all the local businesses will be better prepared too."
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Getting there will take continued research and time.
"It's a bit like predicting the weather or a hurricane. We are very good at short-term predictions; the goal is a longer term prediction and that’s much, much more challenging," she added.