Plateau in COVID-19 cases could be sign of coming surge, doctors say

TAMPA, Fla. - COVID-19 infections are surging across Europe and experts say the U.S. should take it as a warning. There are already some red flags we could be on the cusp of a third wave.

The B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant continues to spread rapidly across the country. The CDC reports more than 7,500 cases nationwide, with numbers in Florida nearly doubling over the last two weeks, to 1,042.

"I think we’re in a race between adequate vaccinations and whether or not these variants take hold," explained USF professor of public health Dr. Marissa Levine.

Dr. Levine says what is concerning to her and other officials is what is happening with the level of infection here in the sunshine state. COVID-19 cases are significantly down since the peak in January. However, over the last few weeks, they have leveled out.

"Testing doesn’t give us the whole picture, but even with the testing that we have we’re seeing this plateauing, and we have to watch carefully to see what happens with hospitalizations over the coming weeks, and even deaths," Levine said.

It is a trend we are seeing in every county here in the Tampa Bay region. Experts say a plateau similar to this is usually the forerunner of another surge, this time driven by the U.K. variant on track to become the dominant strain.

"We have a significant influx of this variant, the U.K. variant, which we know if more transmissible," said Levine. "But, we also have a population of people who are vaccinated, so the dynamics are pretty complicated right now that’s why it’s really hard to predict."

Not enough people have been inoculated yet to reach herd immunity or blunt a rush of new infections. Still, we can prevent another wave. Levine says people need to double down on wearing masks and remaining socially distant and continue getting the COVID-19 shot.

"This is the time to get vaccinated, if you’ve been waiting, there’s no reason to wait any longer, get vaccinated," she said.

Besides the variant, experts say the massive spring break crowds in Florida combined with more states relaxing prevention measures could threaten the progress we have made against the virus.