Tropical disturbance in Caribbean could develop by next week as chances increase slightly

Tropical disturbance in Caribbean could develop by next week

FOX 13's Jim Weber has the latest on the activity in the tropics.

TAMPA, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is now giving a disturbance in the Caribbean a 50 percent chance to develop over the next seven days, but many uncertainties remain.

The National Hurricane Center is giving an area of low pressure in the Caribbean a 50 percent chance to develop over the next seven days.

Where could the wave go if it develops?

FOX 13 meteorologists say models are not yet in agreement about where exactly the area of low pressure could develop, or where it would go. It could head northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, or turn northeast toward the Atlantic.

If a system develops in the Caribbean, it could move northwest into the Gulf of Mexico or northeast toward the Atlantic.

If it does move into the Gulf, FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says it will encounter different conditions compared to the warm waters that fueled recent major hurricanes.

"The waters are very warm and deep in the Caribbean, but look how much cooler they are in the Gulf of Mexico," Osterberg said. "It's late October into November, and the water temperatures tend to cool off. So the low heat content is going to play into this, as well."

Any potential system moving into the Gulf would also encounter increasing wind shear to the north.

FOX 13 meteorologists say lower water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will make for different conditions this time around if a system develops and moves into the Gulf.

FOX 13 Meteorologist Nash Rhodes says the low could organize into a tropical depression by the start of next week.

The next storm to receive a name in the Atlantic Basin will be called Patty.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.

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