Hurricane Rafael forms in Caribbean, warning posted for parts of Florida

TAMPA, Fla. - Hurricane Rafael formed in the Caribbean Tuesday night as a portion of the Florida Keys remains under a tropical storm warning.

As of 7:30 p.m., it was a Category 1 hurricane with wind speeds of 75 miles an hour.

It was located at 19.4°N 79.9°W, which is 305 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, and was moving northwest at 15 miles per hour.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane Rafael is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

After moving into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm is expected to turn northwest and weaken back into a tropical storm as it encounters cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear.

Heavy rain is expected across areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western and southern parts of Cuba. There, 3–6 inches of rain is expected, with locally higher amounts of up to 10 inches possible across the higher terrain of Jamaica and Cuba.

That could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

How will Hurricane Rafael impact the Bay Area?

FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says that while Rafael is expected to stay west of the Bay Area, there will be "fringe impacts" across the region, especially Thursday morning.

"We won't get sustained tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds on this path," Osterberg said. "But we could get some strong gusts along the coast and a couple of bands of rain."

By the weekend, models show Rafael taking one of two paths: either continuing west and meandering over the Gulf, or turning north toward the Florida Panhandle, likely as a tropical storm.

"Either way, we are anticipating this storm to weaken after it gets into the Gulf," Osterberg said.

Where is Hurricane Rafael going to make landfall?

According to the NHC, Hurricane Rafael is expected to continue on a generally northwestward movement over the next few days.

There are still some questions about what will happen next with Rafael after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and those along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress.

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