Tropical storm likely to develop in Gulf of Mexico, bring rain to Florida

Tropical storm may form in Gulf, head toward Florida

FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says the tropics are heating up, but he is only concerned about one area that will impact Bay Area weather next week.

An area of low pressure in the Caribbean is likely to become a tropical storm that will impact Bay Area weather next week.

As of Friday, it was a disorganized area of cloud cover and showers. However, meteorologists say it will meander over the Yucatan until Monday. Then, it is expected to slide northward and head toward the west coast of Florida.

It is unclear where it will make landfall as of right now, but FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says regardless of whether it hits the panhandle, the Big Bend area or the Bay Area, Florida is going to get some much-needed rain.

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He says what we don’t want is a tropical development with the winds and organization.

According to Osterberg, three different computer models show the system becoming a tropical storm as it approaches Florida's west coast. He says the main thing will be rain with the system.

"We’re 13–14 inches of rain below normal," Osterberg explained. "If there is a way we can make up some of this rainfall without the wind we’d be all in, but you get nervous any time a storm is coming in from the southwest through the Caribbean in the heart of hurricane season, you just get a little bit nervous for a quick, quick development."

Osterberg says there will be some wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week as the low is developing and approaching Florida.

He says the wind shear is key to the forecast because without it, the system could strengthen very quickly, especially as it enters the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The wind shear will likely elongate the storm and temper what it can do as it develops.

Osterberg says it is tough to track something that hasn’t developed yet. Once it does develop, he explains that the models will come together, and meteorologists will have a better idea of its projected intensity and where it may make landfall.