Why are the tropics quiet near the peak of hurricane season?

Forecasters keeping close eye on tropical waves

FOX 13 meteorologist Jim Weber is tracking some tropical waves in the Atlantic.

TAMPA, Fla. - The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is nearing its peak, but no named storms are expected to form over the next seven days.

FOX 13 meteorologist Nash Rhodes says there are a couple of reasons for that, including Saharan dust blanketing large amounts of the Main Development Region (MDR).

"Typically, the amount of Saharan dust we see in the region substantially decreases during this time of the year. The length of our current Saharan dust season has been unprecedented, which has contributed to our stretch of inactivity," Rhodes said.

Another factor, Rhodes says, is the northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic Basin. That's causing emerging waves to move through more plumes of Saharan dust and over cooler waters.

Despite the tropics staying quiet for now, the remainder of this hurricane season is still forecast to be active, according to Rhodes. The Saharan dust will eventually dissipate while warm sea surface temperatures could serve as fuel for upcoming disturbances.