Forecast: Track for tropical disturbance in Caribbean brings northwest Gulf into play

TAMPA, Fla. - While there are three areas of interest that forecasters are monitoring, there is one sitting in the central Caribbean that is worth watching, says FOX 13’s meteorologist Dave Osterberg.

That area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean in the next couple of days, reports the National Hurricane Center. It is projected to move north and then west, over warmer waters.

The forecast previously showed it heading to mainland Mexico, but now computer models show it could impact the northwestern Gulf, where Texas and Louisiana are located. 

"If you develop a tropical system in the central and western Caribbean and you float it northwestward, right through all of this warm 85-degree water, that can present a huge problem," Osterberg said. "Now, you’re opening up the gates to a system that could develop pretty quickly and could get strong. That’s why I’m saying this is the one that needs to be watched. Wherever this low develops will be the key in where it heads in the long-term."

LINK: Track the tropics on MyFOXHurricane.com

The location of the disturbance’s low will help refine its path.

"So, we just kind of have to wait and watch and see where this low develops because that will tell the tale as to where it’s going to go," Osterberg explained. "I could place a pin and say, ‘It’s going to be there, start the computer models.’ But what if the low is here? Well, it throws it off completely."

Based on the European model, if that were to play out, the tropical impact would be late Sunday and into Monday along the coast of the northwestern Gulf, but obviously that could change.

"That’s the way it looks now, but I promise you it will change. That’s the way it works. Because it is so far out and that low hasn’t developed yet," Osterberg said. "So, stay tuned." 

LINK: Track the tropics on MyFOXHurricane.com

Meanwhile, a second disturbance is located over the central Atlantic, about 1,000 miles northwest of the northern Leeward Islands. It has a high chance of forming in the next five days, and the forecast shows it turning east over the central Atlantic.

The third tropical wave is located in the eastern Atlantic and could show some development in the next several days.