Tropical disturbance likely to enter Gulf of Mexico as a named storm – but where will it go?
Today's tropical weather forceast
Meteorologist Jim Weber says Invest 98L has potential to become a named storm as it moves from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico next week, but it's too soon to predict it's direction and intensity. Also, Hurricane Fiona and Tropical Storm Gaston continue to swirl over open water.
TAMPA, Fla. - A tropical wave will likely become "Hermine" by this weekend as it enters the Caribbean, but Gulf states should keep an eye on its long-term path.
Invest 98L graphic as of Sept. 22
There appear to be a few possible scenarios, based on a trough that is sitting over the U.S. – one of its possible paths could mean it reaches the west coast of Florida, said FOX 13’s meteorologist Dave Osterberg.
This graphic shows how the trough could steer Invest 98L, as of the data provided on Sept. 22. The storm could miss Florida, or head straight toward its west coast.
"Most of the computer models do bring it into the Gulf. One of two solutions: one maybe north-northeast toward Florida, one maybe up toward Louisiana, northern Gulf coast. It all depends on this," he said while pointing to the trough on a map. "Next week, where will this trough line up? Don’t know yet."
Invest 98L has a 90% chance of developing in the next few days. It is forecast to move west-northwest across the eastern Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In the short-term, computer models agree a tropical storm will form and sit southeast of Jamaica by Saturday morning. Once it reaches the northwest Caribbean Sea, there’s lots of warm, deep water.
"Nobody knows exactly where a storm that hasn’t formed is going to go in the long run," Osterberg emphasized. "We just have to wait and watch. This is going to be the forecasting difficulty next week, but right now, it is just a tropical wave."
LINK: Track the tropics on MyFOXHurricane.com
Comparing the GFS, European and FOX Weather models for Invest 98L’s path on Sunday, Sept. 25.
"It concerns me you can see lots of rapid intensification with this system before it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but then once it does, there’s going to be the trough," Osterberg said. "This is going to help to steer it. Does it stay far enough north and then kind of steers it to the northern Gulf coast, or does it dip down far enough to pick it up and turn it toward Florida and out into the Atlantic?"
He said by the end of the weekend, Gulf coast residents will likely have a better idea of its path.
Comparing the GFS, European and FOX Weather models for Invest 98L’s path on Tuesday, Sept. 27.
"Once you actually get that low-level center, you take all those computer models, and you hone in on where that center is," Osterberg explained. "You’ll start to see some more uniformity."
As for the rest of the Atlantic, Fiona is still heading up to Canada and Gaston is still swirling in the middle of nowhere.
A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa has a 60% chance of development, while another wave in the east-central Atlantic has a much lower chance of developing as of Thursday.