When could Florida see heavy rain from tropical moisture? Here's the latest

Tampa weather | Hot with a few storms

FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg has the latest forecast and an update on the tropics.

TAMPA, Fla. - As the Tampa Bay area works to recover from Hurricane Helene, a tropical disturbance is pulling moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, and that's expected to lead to heavy rain – but how soon will that happen?

The National Hurricane Center is giving the area of low pressure a 40 percent chance of development over the next seven days.

FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says most models are showing a "disorganized rain event."

Timeline for rain

Osterberg says it will take a few days for tropical moisture, and the rain that will come with it, to reach Florida. As of Wednesday morning, all models show the moisture moving across the state late this weekend into early next week.

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"There could be some slow development in the Gulf, and when I mean slow, we're talking about development maybe by Sunday or Monday," Osterberg said.

If the current rainfall forecast holds, much of the activity in Central and South Florida would occur "Sunday through about Tuesday or so," according to Osterberg.