Agatha weakens over Mexico, remnants will likely soak at least South Florida this weekend
Bay Area's weekend forecast depends on Agatha remnants
Meteorologist Dave Osterberg shows how Agatha is weakening over Mexico's mountainous areas, but its remnants will likely soak South Florida by this weekend. One computer model says it could drift closer to the Tampa Bay region, but the forecast will fine-tune later this week.
TAMPA, Fla. - Agatha started as a strong, record-breaking hurricane for the Eastern Pacific season, but has now been downgraded to a tropical storm as Mexico's rough terrain tears it apart.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm should dissipate overnight, but warned that the system’s heavy rains still posed a threat of dangerous flash floods for Mexico’s southern states. Fragments of Agatha will likely cross the mountains into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico and mix into a stew of disturbed weather that extends across the Yucatán Peninsula into the Caribbean.
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As its remnants enter the Gulf of Mexico, there is a 60% chance it could redevelop into another tropical system, explained FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg.
"Now, where does it go? It makes all the difference in how much rain we get this upcoming weekend," he said. "Well, there are two different computer models."
One model keeps Agatha's leftovers south of the state, while the other brings it over the Naples area.
"Obviously, that would bring us a lot more rain," Osterberg explained. "We’re still a little up in the air on the weekend folks. But I can tell you more and more, it looks like at least the Keys and South Florida will get a massive soaking. Some of that heavier rain could work up here as well. We just have to fine-tune it as the week goes along. It’s nothing to be concerned about it now,"
If Agatha's remnants do redevelop into a named storm, it could take on the first name of the Atlantic hurricane season: Alex.
"It depends. If the core structure of the storm is still there. It would stay Agatha," Osterberg said. "I think what you’re going to see is tropical moisture strewn all over the place. And the remnants could redevelop. Then, it would be Alex."
Agatha made history as the strongest hurricane ever recorded to come ashore in May during the Eastern Pacific hurricane season – which began May 15 – making landfall on a sparsely populated stretch of small beach towns and fishing villages in southern Mexico.
The storm came ashore in Oaxaca state Monday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, then it quickly lost power as it moved inland over the mountainous interior.
READ: NOAA forecasts above-average 2022 Atlantic hurricane season with up to 21 named storms
Agatha formed only on Sunday and quickly gained power. It was the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in May in the eastern Pacific, said Jeff Masters, meteorologist with Yale Climate Connections and the founder of Weather Underground.
He said the region’s hurricanes typically get their start from tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.
"Since the African monsoon typically does not start producing tropical waves until early- or mid-May, there simply aren’t enough initial disturbances to get many eastern Pacific hurricanes in May," Masters wrote in an email. "In addition, May water temperatures are cooler than they are at the peak of the season, and wind shear is typically higher."
The Associated Press contributed to this report